Most likely current threat - Zaporhehia Nucler Power Plant (NPP), Ukraine.

• Nuclear Explosion is NOT possible, but long term radioactive release is quite probable.

• Large release of radioactive steam, dust and water is quite probable. 

  • Radioactive steam - will eventually cover North America (and whole world). Moderate amount of steam with mild to low radioactivity

  • Radioactive dust (i.e. fallout) - small amounts will travel the world but amount drops off and scatters rapidly.

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Threat Level - REAL & possibly imminent

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/05/russia-has-planted-suspected-explosives-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-roofs-says-zelenskiy

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Risk to US -

• Short term - Slight to mild (contamination of food supply, dairy in particular)

• Long Term - Mild to moderate (cancers)

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Timing - If there is a leak it will take several days to reach North American air space.  Plenty of time to take actions IF you have materials on hand! The delay in getting here will also allow radioactivity to start to both "burn down" and dissipate.

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Historical perspective - 3 similar incidents in the past. Three Mile Island NPP Pennsylvania USA 1970's, Chernobyl NPP in Ukraine 1980's and Fukishima NPP in Japan in 2000's. All of these were accidents at routine (small) sized NPPs. All had minimal known impact on US health. (There were spikes in cancer cancer cases, pediatric cases in particular, after first two incidents but unable to correlate specifically to radiation. However no other known cause for these spikes)

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However . . . if any incident with Zapo NPP it would be an direct, planned military attack designed to give battlefield advantage i.e. INTENTIONAL leak of radioactive material.

 

NOTE - Zapo NPP is the largest NPP in the world. It has multiple reactors and is 9 times larger than Chernobyl NPP was. 

 

Primary cooling for Zapo NPP was impacted by the blowing up of dam on Dnipro river, this reduced the ability to get water to refill the cooling pond. Furthermore very easy to breach levees of cooling pond resulting in loss of all cooling capabilities possibly resulting in a core melt down. (China Syndrome).

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All 3 previous incidents had some semblance of safety measures still in place during the incidents thus aiding with containing things.

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However . . .a sabotage attack would be engineered to provide maximal precise damage to allow maximal military results (read possibly significantly higher and/or more prolonged then any prior incident) plus being in an active war zone would prevent any emergency personelle or equipment from arriving to contain it.